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| Mar-03-06 | | YouRang: <Joshka: <you rang> Enjoy your stats, thanks!:-)...Do ya have one for how many 4 for 4's there have been? And which one if any, had the most decisive games?> Thanks for the nice words! As for the 4-for-4's, yes there have been a few, but they all occurred in round 3 when all the games were drawn. So (naturally) there were no decisive games to speak of. There have been a few people who correctly predicted all 3 decisive games in a single round. In fact, they all occurred in round 3! Those brilliant people were: UserID,White,Draw,Black
Bobak Zahmat,2/3,0/0,1/1
larrewl,2/3,0/0,1/1
suenteus po 147,2/3,0/0,1/1
WannaBe,2/3,0/0,1/1
yoozum,2/3,0/0,1/1
YouRang,2/3,0/0,1/1
Oh look! I was one of them. Gee, now I feel kinda sheepish about calling them "brilliant". ;-) |
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| Mar-03-06 | | Bobak Zahmat: <YouRang><There have been a few people who correctly predicted all 3 decisive games in a single round. In fact, they all occurred in round 3!> In round 3 all games were drawn!!! |
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| Mar-03-06 | | Bobak Zahmat: <YouRang><Those brilliant people were: UserID,White,Draw,Black
Bobak Zahmat,2/3,0/0,1/1
larrewl,2/3,0/0,1/1
suenteus po 147,2/3,0/0,1/1
WannaBe,2/3,0/0,1/1
yoozum,2/3,0/0,1/1
YouRang,2/3,0/0,1/1
Oh look! I was one of them. Gee, now I feel kinda sheepish about calling them "brilliant". ;-)> I guess we both belong to the brilliant mind group of today! |
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| Mar-03-06 | | TechN9ne: i am officially saying screw this tournament as the players must be on drugs for this one. |
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| Mar-03-06 | | YouRang: <Individual highlights for round 8> BEST PREDICTORS (3 for 4):
cade, Dim Weasel, offramp, percyblakeney, Robin01, YouRang(!) 7 people went 0-for-4
GAME CORRECTLY PREDICTED BY THE FEWEST PEOPLE:
Ivanchuk-Bacrot[0-1]
Predicted by: <NOBODY>! |
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| Mar-03-06 | | YouRang: <Bobak Zahmat><In round 3 all games were drawn!!!> Yes, thank you. My bad. I meant round 2. That's when all those brilliant people picked all 3 decisive games. :) |
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| Mar-03-06 | | suenteus po 147: How odd. Topalov, who is normally prediction poison for me, earned me my only point in today's round. Sad to see that Ivanchuk is staying true to his current form of uber-inconsistency. |
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Mar-04-06
 | | lostemperor: What surprise me if I look at all these predictions, also in the past, is that there are very few predictions that are the same. There are four games. Almost everyone has predicted Radjabov - Leko 1/2. So there are three games left. And still so many variations! |
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| Mar-04-06 | | YouRang: Whew! I'm finally doing better than RANDOM (the predicting monkey). Now I can safely make fun of the people doing worse than RANDOM. ;-) |
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Mar-04-06
 | | Joshka: <babakova> Your one of the leaders!!...did you forget to predict Round 9??...don't see what you predicted? |
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| Mar-04-06 | | babakova: Yeah, it completely slipped my mind unfortunately... Today Im out early with my prediction =) |
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Mar-04-06
| | Joshka: <Babakova>Oh man, what bad luck, i think only <yoozum> was in front of you?...oh well I had an 0 for 4 round, I believe in Round 2,.....go 4 for 4 in another round and you'll even up, I know easier said than done, .....but don't give up, this might be an omen, and you'll win the whole thing despite missing a whole round!..I'll wish ya some luck!:-) |
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| Mar-04-06 | | babakova: <Joshka> Thx man, Ill need it :) |
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| Mar-04-06 | | you vs yourself: Round 10:
Leko-Svidler 1/2
Vallejo-Bacrot 1/2
Topalov-Aronian 0-1
Ivanchuk-Radjabov 1/2
Excellent timing to pick an upset; Aronian's in the hunt for first place and Topy might be overconfident after today's game. Besides I have to pick at least something different from <yoozum> to have a chance to win the prediction contest. No risks, no fun!
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| Mar-05-06 | | iron maiden: Another good day for me with 3/4. I started the prediction contest miserably with just one prediction right from the first two rounds, but in the later rounds I've stormed all the way up to 3rd-5th place. Let's see if I can continue the comeback: Ivanchuk-Leko 1/2
Radjabov-Topalov 1/2
Aronian-Vallejo 1/2
Bacrot-Svidler 1/2 |
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Mar-06-06
 | | cu8sfan: Interesting stat here (excerpt from the standings after 10 rounds): 21,40,52.5%,cade,10
20,40,50.0%,Dim Weasel,10
For rounds 1, 2, 4, 8, <cade> posted his predictions earlier than <Dim Weasel>.
For rounds 3,5,6,7,9,10,11, <Dim Weasel> posted his predictions earlier than <cade>. Now what's so special? Well, apart from one single game (round 7, Leko-Topalov), these two participants posted the exact same predictions throughout the whole contest! The reason must be that they both seem to follow a strategy: Topalov wins, all others draw. The only difference is that <cade> started to doubt this strategy by round 7 and changed the one prediction that's different now for these two guys. |
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Mar-06-06
| | cu8sfan: By the way, our combined predictor isn't doing that bad: <round: score>
01: 1
02: 0
03: 4
04: 1
05: 2
06: 1
07: 3
08: 1
09: 3
10: 2
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All: 18
This ties him for 12th - 14th with 45.0%. |
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| Mar-06-06 | | cade: Leko drawing overides any strategic decisions! Cu8sfan has identified my strategy correctly but for round 7 I just couldn't see Topalov breaking down Leko. |
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| Mar-06-06 | | Appaz: <<cu8sfan> a strategy: Topalov wins> Same as mine (with Aronian added) although I think I went for a draw for him once. I thought this strategy was the main cause of my bad predictions, but as the results of <cade> and <Dim Weasel> shows, this is not the case. Anyway, here we go again, with newborn optimism after the rebirth of Topalov. Round 11:
Ivanchuk - Leko 1/2
Radjabov - Topalov 0-1
Aronian - Vallejo 1-0
Bacrot - Svidler 1/2 |
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Mar-06-06
| | cu8sfan: <Leko drawing overides any strategic decisions!> Lol! <all> How difficult has this tournament been to predict so far? Consider these stats: A total of 14 participants has correctly predicted all four games of a round 15 times in this tournament. All these predictions came in round 3 (all draws) or 9 (all draws except win for Topalov). On the other end of the list, a total of 42 participants has scored 0 points 54 times. There has been at least a 0 score in every round except for round 3. The worst round was round 2 with 14 nulls. Of the 14 players that had a 4-score-round, 10 also had a 0-score round. |
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| Mar-06-06 | | YouRang: <Individual Highlights for round 10> BEST PREDICTORS (3-for-4):
Bobak Zahmat, Jafar219
3 people went 0-for-4
GAMES CORRECTLY PREDICTED BY THE FEWEST PEOPLE:
Ivanchuk-Radjabov[0-1]
Predicted by: ahmadov + Jafar219
Vallejo-Bacrot[0-1]
Predicted by: Assassinater + Bobak Zahmat + dimradil + Jafar219 + YouRang(!) A nice comeback for Jafar219! |
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| Mar-06-06 | | YouRang: <Individual highlights for round 9>
(Reposted to fix a typo - sorry)
BEST PREDICTORS (4 of 4):
cade, Dim Weasel, iron maiden, kolobok, Montreal1666, you vs yourself, zarra 12 people went 3-for-4
1 person went 0-for-4!
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| Mar-06-06 | | YouRang: <Jafar219> You're welcome. BTW, in case you didn't notice, you have now taken a narrow lead the "Betting Ranker" contest: Earnings,UserID,Games,Rounds
$47.26,Jafar219,40,10
$45.92,Joshka,40,10
$44.69,ahmadov,40,10 |
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| Mar-06-06 | | YouRang: This Linares tournament has an ususully low draw rate, compensated by an unusually high rate of black wins. For comparison, here are the percentages for recent tournaments: Tournament,White%,Draw%,Black%
WCC San Luis,28%,57%,14%
Corus 2006,28%,56%,15%
The two tournaments above represent 147 games, and have about the same percentages. We see that there tends to be almost twice as many white wins as black wins. Now compare to the percentages so far for Linares:
Linares 2006,27%,47%,25%
Although the rate of white wins is about the same as in other tournaments, black is surprisingly doing nearly as well as white. In 40 games, there have been 11 wins by white, and 10 wins by black! |
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| Mar-06-06 | | YouRang: <cu8sfan> Since you're a baseball fan, perhaps you've already heard the sad news that Kirby Puckett, hall-of-famer formerly with the Minnesota Twins died today. He was just 44. :-( |
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