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Jan-01-12
 | | Phony Benoni: <Jim Bartle> In part, it's due to the way this database was put together. Early on, a large collection of King's Gambits was added. These were mostly quick, decisive games rather than a representative sample of the opening. But aside from that, I think the two factors you mention go hand in hand. The King's Gambit is a very sharp opening and appeals to players willing to take chances. The number of draws has been increasing through the years, but on the other hand progressively fewer games are being added to the database. The percentages won't be changing dramatically any time soon. Note the other openings, by the way. Most of the lines are 1.e4 e5, including both sections of the Evans Gambit. About the only exceptions are variations in the Albin Counter Gambit, the Staunton Gambit, and a rogue Benoni. |
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| Jan-01-12 | | playground player: <Jim Bartle> I must be getting old. I failed to recognize your extremely funny comment on the Al Kaline candy bar! |
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Jan-01-12
| | Phony Benoni: <SILLY DATABASE STATISTICS> Some things never change. We begin the year with:
<The John von Neumann Win-Win Situation Award for the Line with the Most Balanced Chances for Either Side to Win> For the sake of comparison, in the entire database White wins 37.27%, Black wins 27.25%, a difference of 10.02%. 1. Grunfeld, with Bf4 & e3 (D93) (29.8%, 29.8%, 0.0%, 439 games) 2. Queen's Gambit Declined Slav, Exchange Variation (D13) (22.4%, 22.3%, 0.1%, 1110 games) 3. Queen's Pawn Game (A45) (35.6%, 35.4%, 0.2%, 5587 games) 4. Sicilian, Kan, 5.Nc3 (B43) (34.6%, 34.9%, 0.3%, 3546 games) 5. Sicilian, Najdorf (B97) (31.8%, 31.4%, 0.4%, 1073 games) 6. Grunfeld, 5.Bg5 (D91) (28.9%, 28.5%, 0.4%, 922 games) 7. Nimzo-Indian, Leningrad (E30) (33.3%, 33.7%, 0.4%, 525 games) 8. French, Exchange (C01) (30.1%, 29.6%, 0.5%, 2897 games) 9. Sicilian, Najdorf, Opocensky Variation (B92) (31.7%, 31.2%, 0.5%, 2646 games) 10. Queen's Pawn Game (A46) (32.6%, 33.3%, 0.7%, 6640 games) 11. Sicilian, O'Kelly Variation (B28) (36.8%, 35.9%, 0.9%, 1229 games) 12. Sicilian, Fischer-Sozin with ...a6 and ...b5 (B87) (34.8%, 35.7%, 0.9%, 815 games) 13. Budapest Gambit (A51) (38.8%, 37.9%, 0.9%, 240 games) 14. Sicilian, Prins Variation, Venice Attack (B55) (35.3%, 36.2%, 0.9%, 116 games) 15. Queen's Indian (A47) (31.4%, 32.4$, 1.0%, 786 games) 16. Sicilian, Closed (B23) (35.6%, 36.7%, 1.1%, 5037 games) 17. Sicilian (B56) (34.4%, 33.3%, 1.1%, 1767 games) 18. Two Knights (C56) (35.4%, 36.5%, 1.1%, 539 games) 19. Queen's Gambit Accepted, Classical (D29) (29.5%, 28.3%, 1.2%, 244 games) 20. Sicilian, Alapin (B22) (31.6%, 32.9%, 1.3%, 8319 games) 21. King's Pawn Game (C20) (38.8%, 40.1%, 1.3%, 309 games) A good mix here. Risky openings like the Budapest, quiet openings like the Slav and French Exchange, about 40% Sicilians, and a number of slightly offbeat lines. |
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Jan-01-12
 | | WannaBe: Early games don't have 'too' much drama, 4th Niners win, they get #2 seed and first week bye. A. Rogers is not playing vs. Detroit. Cincy wins, they're in, if they lose (the game is a sell-out, after 2 fer 1 offer by the ownership.) it can be messy. If Oakland win and Cincy lose, Oakland would be #6 Wild Card. Late games have KC-Den, and SD-Oak drama. But the one to watch (at least for moi) will be Dal-NYG game. With the winner moving on as 4th seed, and hosting Atl/Det. Bottom line, 'Just Win, Baby'. |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Sure sign of the Apolycapse: http://www.youtube.com/watch?featur... |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: If Detroit wins, they go to Dal/NYG. Things gets muddled if they lose, because Atl beat Det in regular season. If Detroit lose + Atl win, Lions go to The Big Easy and take on Saints. Would you rather face Romo/Manning, or Drew? |
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Jan-01-12
| | Phony Benoni: The way the Lions are getting lit up by Green Bay's second-string quarterback, I wouldn't even bother showing up in New Orleans. Just play the game on Madden. |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Here is a question that will be asked ad nauseum until draft day. Griffin III or Luck, if you are Indy, are you afraid of the 'Heiman Curse'? Do you draft a warm weather QB (Lucas Oil is a convertible stadium.) to play in the cold? (Now, A. Rogers seem to have adopted quite well in GB, but C. Palmer did not do as well in Cincy.) Pittsburgh and NE drafted cold weather college QBs, while the NYJ took a SoCal boy Sanchez. Or do Indy trade their #1 pick? Will the Rams trade their #2 pick, because they don't need a QB, or do they? Will the head coach survive? Will people vote Payton as MVP? Will I please end this stupid post? |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Looks like Detroit will be going to the Big Easy. I don't see TB beating Atl... |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Not looking too good for the Oakland R's... |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Oakland needs a miracle, down 12 don't have the ball, 2 minutes left... Where is Tebow?!?! |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Congratulations to the co-co-co AFC West champions Chargers, Broncos, and the Traiders... All finished 8-8. |
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Jan-01-12
| | Phony Benoni: Looks like they were evenly matched. |
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| Jan-01-12 | | Shams: Matt Flynn made himself a yacht-load of money today. |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Looks the NY/A are gonna win, 'less they pull a Buffalo Bills, who got out to a 21-0 lead against New England after 1st Qtr, and then promptly gave up 49 straight unanswered pts in Qtrs 2, 3, and 4... |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Early prediction, Pittsburgh's Steel Curtain will knock Tim Tebow into next decade, I'd set the early odds at Pittsburgh -10. O/U at 37 1/2. And I'd take Pittsburgh. |
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Jan-01-12
| | WannaBe: Thank goodness both the Jets and Cowboys are not in the play-offs, no more of the Ryan brothers until training camp. Or their next combined special, 'Biggest Weight Watchers Losers'. |
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Jan-02-12
| | Phony Benoni: <WannaBe> Let me put it this way. I would expect the over/under in the Pittsburgh v. Denver game to be the same as the point spread. |
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Jan-02-12
| | Phony Benoni: <SILLY DATABASE STATISTICS>
Let's get this over, with the silliest statistic of them all: <The Even Steven Trifecta for the Line with the Most Balanced Chance for a Win, a Loss, and a Draw> For the sake of comparison, in the entire database White wins 37.3%, Black wins 27.3% and 35.5% are drawn = a difference of 10.0% between the highest and lowest of these numbers. 1. Nimzo-Indian, Leningrad (E30) (White wins 33.3%, Black wins 33.7%, Draws 33.0% = difference 0.7%; 525 games) 2. English, Symmetrical, Benoni Formation (A31) (34.1%, 32.7%, 33.3% = 1.4%; 928 games 3. Queen's Pawn Game (A46) (32.6%, 33.3%, 34.1% = 1.5%; 6640 games) 4. Sicilian, Scheveningen (B84) (34.1%, 32.5%, 33.4% = 1.6%; 1770 games) 5. Sicilian (B56) (34.4%, 33.3%, 32.3% = 2.1%; 1767 games) 6. King's Indian (A48) (32.1%, 33.7%, 34.3% = 2.2%; 3721 games) 7. English (A10) (34.6%, 31.9%, 33.4% = 2.7%; 3291 games) 8. Sicilian, Dragon, Classical (B74) (33.1%, 35.0%, 31.8% = 3.2%; 471 games) 9. Nimzo-Indian, Samisch (E29) (35.2%, 31.8%, 33.0% = 3.4%; 179 games) 10. Sicilian (B53) (35.0%, 31.5%, 33.5% = 3.5%; 1115 games) 11. Sicilian, Alapin (B22) (31.6%, 32.9%, 35.5% = 3.9%; 8319 games) 12. Nimzo-Indian, Fischer Variation (E43) (35.5%, 33.0%, 31.4% = 4.1%; 557 games) 13. Ruy Lopez (C71) (35.0%, 30.8%, 34.2% = 4.2%; 354 games) 14. Sicilian (B40) (36.0%, 31.6%, 32.5% = 4.4%; 6080 games) 15. Scotch Game (C45) (35.1%, 30.7%, 34.2% = 4.4%; 4272 games) 16. Sicilian, Kan, 5.Nc3 (B43) (34.6%, 34.9%, 30.5% = 4.4%; 3546 games) 17. Queen's Pawn Game (with ...d6) (A41) (35.3%, 30.8%, 33.9% = 4.5%; 3005 games 18. Caro-Kann, Exchange (B13) (33.0%, 31.2%, 35.7% = 4.5%; 1844 games 19. English (A22) (36.1%, 31.5%, 32.5% = 4.6%; 1531 games) 20. Torre Attack (Tartakower Variation) (D03) (31.1%, 33.2%, 35.7% = 4.6%; 705 games This either means that the Mayans got it right or that the Republicans will nominate Herman Cain after all when he lowers the price of Godfather's Pizza to $9.99. |
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| Jan-02-12 | | Shams: Points spreads:
@Houston -3 <Cincinnati> 38.5 <+>@New Orleans -10.5 <Detroit> 58.5 <+> @NY Giants -3 <Atlanta> 49 <pk> <Pittsburgh> -8 @Denver 35 <-> My picks in brackets; I think Atlanta shows up and wins outright. Coughlin's Giants are like hens, they can't go too many weeks without laying an egg. |
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| Jan-02-12 | | King Death: <Phony Benoni> Here's an article I just saw on the chances of some players for Cooperstown: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/inde... |
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| Jan-02-12 | | King Death: < Shams: Points spreads:
@Houston -3 <Cincinnati> 38.5 <+>
@New Orleans -10.5 <Detroit> 58.5 <+>@NY Giants -3 <Atlanta> 49 <pk> <Pittsburgh> -8 @Denver 35 <->> Who's playing QB for Houston now? Joe Montana? I've just about lost track.
I'm taking the points in that game.
At the Superdome, I want to bet everything on the over. I like Atlanta to win straight up too but the Giants are so schizoid and always seem to show up for big games. Pittsburgh for -8 is a pretty good number to lay but I think they make life miserable for Tebow and he'll be lucky to survive. |
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Jan-02-12
| | Phony Benoni: I suspect Pittsburgh will score more touchdowns defensively than Denver will offensively. That is going to be ugly. Cincy seems to be the "trendy" pick right now, and Houston does seem to be struggling with injury problems. That being said, I don't see the Bengals blowing the Texans out, so that game may come down to one fluky drive. Given that the Bengals are an ugly team that hasn't been playing well down the stretch, I'm going to go with Houston. I don't trust the Falcons either. Sure the Giants are schizoid, but they also have experience the Falcons don't, and that last game against New Orleans shows Atlanta is not quite ready for prime time. The NFL playoff record for passing yards in a game is 489 by Bernie Kosar in a double-overtime game. Matthew Stafford may break that. It still won't be enough, since the Saints will likely take care of the over/under themselves. |
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Jan-02-12
 | | OhioChessFan: Cincinnati, New Orleans, Atlanta, Pittsburgh. I really don't get the line on the last game. Pittsburgh should be -21. |
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Jan-02-12
| | WannaBe: I think in my earlier post, I first pegged Pittsburgh to be -10, on the road, no less. |
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