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Feb-02-08
 | | alexmagnus: <considered Navara's personality, <health> and preferance for studying, may we expect more ups and downs than for another player compared to his strength?> What's with his health? |
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Feb-02-08 | | angslo: <alexmagnus: <considered Navara's personality, <health> and preferance for studying, may we expect more ups and downs than for another player compared to his strength?> What's with his health?>
some neurosis he has as far as i remember.
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Feb-02-08 | | frogbert: <since he cant get the prestigious invitational-type tournaments, he settle for the swiss tournament with the big money prize. Can you blame him?> his choice is his choice. but i don't think it's very ambitious for a young player to be governed exclusively by the money. do you? :o) also, like i said above, what pays short term, isn't necessarily the same that pays long term. but it's different making 2750+ performances against 2550-2600 averages and against 2650-2700 averages - if you don't believe me on my word, then check fischl's stats for moro, for instance, say 2000-2006 (except 2002, which was just bad for moro). 2007 was the first year he managed to perform really well against averages close to 2700. before that, his yearly performance rating was higher, the weaker his opposition (his p.r. was much higher when his average was ~2650 than it was those years it was ~2700) (did you notice, slomarko? :o)
what i mean by this, is that nobody should take nakamura's success at a higher level for granted, unless he makes his way up there and really proves himself. we already know he can beat 2500s and the occasional 2600. i haven't seen him beat a string of 2600s yet, like bu did in gibtelecom, or movsesian did in corus b this year. therefor i think it's shortsighted (at best) to pass up on an opportunity like corus b. i've got an unconfirmed feeling it also might be something of an ego issue... and it's already a long time since his bumpy corus b in 2004 (where he made a higher number of wins than his positions along the road promised him) :o) |
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Feb-03-08 | | Strongest Force: <I dont think it's ambitious for a young person to be governed exclusively by the amount of money he can make> This shows your blatant un-american spirit and i feel it is my patriotic duty to report you to Homelandsecurity as a terrorist! ;) Seriously however, Nak is more mature than he was in 2004 as can be shown since he has been in college. The money is addictive and his bank account is most-likely bigger than most 2700-players for a good reason: he can beat a string of back-to-back GMs who are 2600 WHEN THE MONEY IS ON THE TABLE. So we can see in this Hip Hop generation, to be a real man you must have the "bling bling" and all the other material things to be taken seriously. This may be offensive to the older generation but it still is very much the real world in which they live. |
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Feb-03-08 | | slomarko: <2005: 12 (kramnik 49, svidler 97, moro 52)
2004: 34 (kramnik 52, svidler 61, moro 40)
2003: 18 (kramnik 38, svidler 80, moro 47)
2002: 21 (kramnik 0, svidler 32, moro 47)
2001: 37 (kramnik 37, svidler 55, moro 46)
2000: 49 (kramnik 46, svidler 63, moro 54)>
from this we can see that Kasparov played more games than Kramnik in 2000 and 2002, equal in 2001 and less 2003, 2004. in 2005 he retired after Linares so we shouldn't count that. given that in 2003 and 2004 he was preparing for the match with Ponomariov and that he always skipped the tourney in Dortmund coz of the problems with organisers i'd risk saying that he didn't play less games to prepare better. |
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Feb-03-08 | | frogbert: <his bank account is most-likely bigger than most 2700-players for a good reason> due to prize money and start money? how do you know?
i seriously doubt his bank account is bigger than "most 2700-players" due to prize money/start money, and if it still would be, the only reason would be higher prizes in relatively weak events in the us, compared to european standards. <he can beat a string of back-to-back GMs who are 2600 WHEN THE MONEY IS ON THE TABLE.> repeatedly, or once every year?
in barcelona in october he scored 4/5 against his 2600+ opponents, which is indeed very good - but he lost to a 2506-player the round after beating 2683-rated dominguez... and regarding "back-to-back", he didn't even beat two 2600s in a row. however, in the us championship, he scored 0,5/3 against 2600+, in foxwoods 0/1, in last year's gibtelecom 1/2 (and again his "strategy" for racking up a high score was losing to a 2400-rated player early on), and 1,5/2 in nao. that's one year of results. in other words, you've got the same empirical justification for that statement above, that i would have for saying that "carlsen is so popular because he can win and place ahead of the world's top 3 players when(ever) the field contains at least 10-12 2700+ players". your claim simply isn't backed up by anything at all. the fact is that nakamura hardly meets 2600-players (and we're talking fide of course). in 2007 he met an <average of 2539> and scored 65%. playing 12-13 games against 2600-players (out of 60-ish games) doesn't really give you any idea of someone's capacity - he scored 7/13 in the games i know. check http://members.aon.at/sfischl/cl200... (where nakamura placed 68 in 2007) and see the number of players that scored around 65% <against much tougher competition than what nakamura faced>. in my opinion, nakamura should be happy he even gets invitations to corus b - turning such an invitation down, is equivalent to shooting yourself in the foot, if your eventual goal is top level tournament invitations. carlsen pocketed roughly 100 000 us dollars for his shared 2nd place in linares last year, for instance - moro got the same amount. what was nakamura's total prize and start money earnings in 2007? |
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Feb-03-08 | | frogbert: slomarko, i said that kramnik plays too little, too. my critique against kasparov for playing little applies equally to kramnik. so i don't get your point. counting 2002 for kramnik is very strange, though - he had an off-year and didn't play chess at all. the majority of 2700-players were much more active than kasparov during 2000-2004 - that's undebatable, slomarko. |
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Feb-03-08 | | slomarko: <the majority of 2700-players were much more active than kasparov during 2000-2004 - that's undebatable, slomarko.> well i agree that he played too little i just don't agree what were his motives to play so little. |
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Feb-03-08 | | slomarko: i've just noticed a curious thing, Kasparov is 12 years older than Kramnik same as Karpov was 12 years older than him. |
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Feb-03-08
 | | alexmagnus: <slomarko> So the next World Champion will be Radjabov? (12 years younger than Kramnik:)) |
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Feb-03-08 | | Strongest Force: Frogbert, i didn't say all that mumbo-jumbo you said (your statistics), i simply said that Nak is a "money player" who almost always wins when the game he plays decide the prize-money. Especially since attending college, i believe he has finnished out-of-the money just once or twice! I believe that if one was to add-up his prize-money during this time, he would come out ahead of most of your top 25. I dont know if anyone can/should do such a report but until the documentation is produced my beliefs will stay the same. |
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Feb-03-08 | | DrawingIsLife: Thanks for your kind reply, Frogbert!
When talking about rating performance, it´s interesting that Moro plays better against lower rated players. But, do this apply to all the top players, or are the someone who plays better against higher rated players? I know that Kramnik nearly newer plays against 2600-players, but if he did, I imagine that he wouldn´t have a rating performance higher than 2800, mainly because he nearly never wins with black. It must be very hard to get a 2830-performance like Carlsen got in Corus in a field of 2500-players. In his last Swiss, Gausdal 2007, i think Carlsen lost some rating points, so maybe also Carlsen is best aginst the top players? |
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Feb-03-08 | | rogge: <DrawingIsLife>
Check out this page:
http://members.aon.at/sfischl/po270...
It hasn't been updated since 06/01/08 (before Corus 2008), but it may answer some of your questions :) |
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Feb-03-08 | | DrawingIsLife: Thank you Rogge |
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Feb-03-08 | | frogbert: <i didn't say all that mumbo-jumbo you said > strongest force, i don't care talking to you, if "mumbo-jumbo" is the standard you want to keep to. believe what you want, obviously facts aren't your cup of tea. |
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Feb-03-08 | | Strongest Force: Frogbert, the ONLY facts i am interested in AT THIS TIME are the ones I brought-up. If you cant deal with that all i can say is: GOOD BYE AND GOOD LUCK! |
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Feb-03-08 | | frogbert: < In his last Swiss, Gausdal 2007, i think Carlsen lost some rating points,> drawingislife, gausdal 2007 that carlsen played, wasn't a swiss, it was a round robin - and he gained about 6,5 rating points if my memory serves me well. he lost about 0,2 points or so in arctic chess challenge, though, that was a swiss - which he played coming directly from abroad from winning biel 2007. regarding tprs, they tend to become a useless measure when a number of your opponents are rated 6-700 points below you, like in arctic chess challenge for carlsen (he met stubberud, carlsen senior and hagen, for instance). however, the best chance a 2600-player has to score a 2800+ tpr, is to rack up a very high percentage score against players with an average around 2550-2600. you will practically never see a 2650-player score a 2800+ performance against a 2700-average - in general the 2650 player isn't even capable of making 50% against the 2700 average, and not at all the required 64% for getting a 2800+ tpr against that average. on the other hand, it happens now and then that a 2650-player manages to score 80% against a 2575-average - which translates to a 2815 tpr. there is no doubt in my mind, though that 64% against a 2700-average is much stronger than 80% against a 2575-average. so, my stand on this, is that tprs gradually become a slightly meaningless measure, when the scores approach and exceed 75%. another way of putting it - a tpr that you're incapable of reproducing by scoring roughly 50%, does probably not give a correct picture of your performance and your abilities. an example from carlsen's career: he scored a 2700+ tpr in corus c 2004 (when rated 2484), but at that point he would've been completely incapable of scoring 50% in a field that averaged 2700. the "lesson" is that the value of tournament performance ratings is debatable. mindlessly comparing tprs without regard to the level of opposition played, will more often than not lead you astray, in my opinion. :o) |
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Feb-03-08 | | frogbert: <the ONLY facts i am interested in AT THIS TIME are the ones I brought-up.> hehe, yeah - ditch every fact that contradicts your belief. very usual strategy for lots of people with strong beliefs. :o) |
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Feb-03-08 | | slomarko: <Strongest Force: Frogbert, the ONLY facts i am interested in AT THIS TIME are the ones I brought-up.> this is like saying the Sun revolves around the Earth and when somebody brings your attention to the facts that this isn't true you say: the ONLY facts i am interested in AT THIS TIME are the ones I brought-up. genial. |
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Feb-03-08 | | frogbert: <i just don't agree what were his motives to play so little.> well, i know nothing of kasparov's motifs, so we can hardly disagree on that. :o) my point is that playing little/less and always knowing who your opponents are going to be ahead of time, at least facilitates more thorough and player-specific preparations than playing many tournaments and events where you only know your opponent the night before (like in swisses and team events). whether this was part of some strategy or not for kasparov, i don't know and don't care. like i said, among the current elite, there are indeed players with a similar pattern as that of kasparov in the later part of his active career. on a micro-level, there also is the difference between those who try to create something in a majority of their games in a tournament, and those who happily steer into drawish positions in 20-25 moves in most of their games, and only put in the extra effort in a selected few games. of course, people do what they like, both with respect to how often they play, and how they play when they do play - but i think factors like these are among those that decide who the more popular players will be. still, winners attract fans, so whatever your formula - if it leads to tournament wins, it will usually serve you well. :o) |
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Feb-03-08 | | Strongest Force: My point, which the two side-kicks chose to overlook is that MY points were never addressed. Instead mr frog went-off into something I WAS NOT TALKING ABOUT. i dont think he could find anything he could badmouth about in terms of Nak making consistently great money, especially in the crucial games. Also, i dont thing some europeans like the fact that he is making more money at "lesser" events. :) |
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Feb-03-08 | | slomarko: <Also, i dont thing some europeans like the fact that he is making more money at "lesser" events. :)> nobody in europe gives a @#$% if Naka makes a lot of money in big events, or more money in "lesser" event or whatever is he doing. we just don't care. |
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Feb-03-08 | | frogbert: actually, the open swiss tournament nakamura should enter, in terms of proving a bit of consistency, is <aeroflot open>. there basically are no weak players there, with the a-group having a lower limit on 2550 (with some younger talents being accepted with a lower rating). while we seldom see 2700-players in the field, the number of 2600-players usually is in the ballpark of 40-50 - and the winner doesn't just get decent prize money, <he also gets an invitation to the dortmund supergm tournament>. so, in aeroflot i'd really say that "the money is on the table", at least metaphorically speaking - if a spot in dortmund isn't motivating enough, then nothing is, in my opinion. :o) i've never understood why nakamura hasn't participated there even once. the only reason i can think of, is that he prefers weaker events where the chances of winning is greater. however, it might be that nobody told him that if he's accepted to high-profile events, then all it takes to "finish in the money", is to start the tournament: if you start, you get payed, if you play well, you get more money, and if you play really, really well, you get loads of money. if i were naka (and as strong as his fans like to think he is), i think it's a no-brainer what my choice would've been. :o) |
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Feb-03-08 | | Strongest Force: Slomarko, if you don't care, why did you respond?
Frogbert, you still cant respond to why Nak IS successful: why (in terms of percentage) he is the most ruthlessly productive player on the planet when it comes to winning games that decide a tournament. |
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Feb-03-08 | | slomarko: <Slomarko, if you don't care, why did you respond?> i responded to correct your stupid claim that we europeans care how much money or where Naka wins. we don't. |
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