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Gashimov Memorial (2017) The 4th Vugar Gashimov Memorial (Shamkir Chess) was a 10-player single round-robin held in the Heydar Aliev Centre in Shamkir, Azerbaijan, 21-30 April 2017. It was organized by the Azerbaijan Chess Federation and Synergy CSR LLC. Rest day: 26 April. Time control: 120 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by 60 more minutes for the next 20 moves, then 15 more minutes for the rest of the game, with 30 seconds added per move starting from move 61. A Rapid playoff would take place in case of a tie for first place. Prize fund: 100,000 euros, with 25,000 euros to the winner. Chief arbiter: Faig Gasanov. Number of games played: 45. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov won again with 5.5/9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 Mamedyarov * 1 1 ½ ½ 0 ½ ½ 1 ½ 5½ 2 Kramnik 0 * 0 ½ ½ ½ 1 ½ 1 1 5 3 So 0 1 * ½ 1 ½ ½ ½ ½ ½ 5 4 Topalov ½ ½ ½ * 0 1 ½ ½ 1 ½ 5 5 Karjakin ½ ½ 0 1 * ½ 0 ½ 1 ½ 4½ 6 Wojtaszek 1 ½ ½ 0 ½ * ½ ½ ½ ½ 4½ 7 Adams ½ 0 ½ ½ 1 ½ * ½ ½ ½ 4½ 8 Radjabov ½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½ * 0 ½ 4 9 Eljanov 0 0 ½ 0 0 ½ ½ 1 * 1 3½ 10 Harikrishna ½ 0 ½ ½ ½ ½ ½ ½ 0 * 3½ Official site: https://web.archive.org/web/2017051... Regulations: https://web.archive.org/web/2017042... Chess.com: https://www.chess.com/news/view/mam... ChessBase: https://en.chessbase.com/post/gashi... chess24: https://chess24.com/en/watch/live-t... TWIC: https://theweekinchess.com/chessnew... FIDE: https://ratings.fide.com/tournament... Previous: Gashimov Memorial (2016). Next: Gashimov Memorial (2018)  page 1 of 2; games 1-25 of 45  Game   Result Moves Year Event/Locale Opening 1. Eljanov vs Radjabov 1-0 46 2017 Gashimov Memorial C65 Ruy Lopez, Berlin Defense 2. So vs Mamedyarov 0-1 39 2017 Gashimov Memorial C45 Scotch Game 3. Karjakin vs Harikrishna ½-½ 40 2017 Gashimov Memorial D38 Queen's Gambit Declined, Ragozin Variation 4. Topalov vs Adams ½-½ 42 2017 Gashimov Memorial C84 Ruy Lopez, Closed 5. Wojtaszek vs Kramnik   ½-½ 83 2017 Gashimov Memorial D41 Queen's Gambit Declined, Semi-Tarrasch 6. Mamedyarov vs Karjakin ½-½ 22 2017 Gashimov Memorial C53 Giuoco Piano 7. Adams vs So ½-½ 41 2017 Gashimov Memorial A15 English 8. Wojtaszek vs Topalov 0-1 34 2017 Gashimov Memorial D12 Queen's Gambit Declined Slav 9. Kramnik vs Radjabov   ½-½ 73 2017 Gashimov Memorial A48 King's Indian 10. Harikrishna vs Eljanov 0-1 54 2017 Gashimov Memorial E47 Nimzo-Indian, 4.e3 O-O 5.Bd3 11. Radjabov vs Harikrishna ½-½ 28 2017 Gashimov Memorial D38 Queen's Gambit Declined, Ragozin Variation 12. Topalov vs Kramnik ½-½ 35 2017 Gashimov Memorial D55 Queen's Gambit Declined 13. So vs Wojtaszek ½-½ 40 2017 Gashimov Memorial D02 Queen's Pawn Game 14. Karjakin vs Adams 0-1 39 2017 Gashimov Memorial D37 Queen's Gambit Declined 15. Eljanov vs Mamedyarov 0-1 66 2017 Gashimov Memorial E67 King's Indian, Fianchetto 16. Wojtaszek vs Karjakin   ½-½ 25 2017 Gashimov Memorial D40 Queen's Gambit Declined, Semi-Tarrasch 17. Mamedyarov vs Radjabov ½-½ 24 2017 Gashimov Memorial E94 King's Indian, Orthodox 18. Topalov vs So ½-½ 64 2017 Gashimov Memorial C67 Ruy Lopez 19. Adams vs Eljanov   ½-½ 42 2017 Gashimov Memorial C50 Giuoco Piano 20. Kramnik vs Harikrishna 1-0 42 2017 Gashimov Memorial C78 Ruy Lopez 21. Radjabov vs Adams   ½-½ 32 2017 Gashimov Memorial E06 Catalan, Closed, 5.Nf3 22. Eljanov vs Wojtaszek   ½-½ 45 2017 Gashimov Memorial A08 King's Indian Attack 23. Karjakin vs Topalov 1-0 30 2017 Gashimov Memorial B12 Caro-Kann Defense 24. Harikrishna vs Mamedyarov ½-½ 51 2017 Gashimov Memorial A04 Reti Opening 25. So vs Kramnik 1-0 65 2017 Gashimov Memorial A14 English  page 1 of 2; games 1-25 of 45    REFINE SEARCH:   White wins (1-0) | Black wins (0-1) | Draws (1/2-1/2)   < Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 16 OF 20 ·  Later Kibitzing> Apr-30-17    AylerKupp: <<zanzibar> As far as calculating probabilities - it seems to me that a simple Monte Carlo simulation would work very well.> I have to plead ignorance as far as Monte Carlo simulations are concerned. While I am aware of the principles, I have never implemented one. But I think I found another and possibly better way. I found a chess games database (http://www.kingbase-chess.net/) which seemed ideal for my purposes; PGN format, no games between players rated below 2000, no games with less than 6 games, no games played before 1990, and free to download. Out of about 1.9 million games after I eliminated Rapid, Blitz, exhibition, etc. games and duplicate games I was left with about 1.7 million games. I then calculated the discrete probability distributions for White wins, loses, and draws when both players were rated 2000+, 2100+, etc. My intent was to either smooth out the distributions or determine which of the standard probability density functions would best fit the data when my hard drive went kaput. So now I have to start over. But as you said, not too difficult if a tad time consuming Unfortunately, although the authors claimed that KingBase would be updated monthly but there have been no updates since Mar-2016. The site currently says that “KingBase [is] coming back soon”. But I suppose that, given what I paid for the product, I have no cause to complain. Apr-30-17    JimNorCal: The Kramnik late-game attack is excellent! Stockfish was dubious about sending all those pieces to the kingside. And the first attack point, f2, never fell. But the attack went on and on then finally won through. Apr-30-17    Gypsy: <Nerwal: It seems Eljanov got out-calculated by his opponents in this tournament ...> In the last game, Eljanov lost the strategic thread of the game. After 41 moves, Black can not really bring rook or knight to the Q-side and help stop the White a-pawn. Black therefore tries to attack White king with <42.Qg2?!...>. White, however, should have sequentially stick with his own plan and continue <42...b6>. He would then have a better draw and be close to winning the game. Instead, White plays a sequence of dud moves and allows Kramnik to completely outplay him. Apr-30-17    AylerKupp: <<Marmot PFL> The problem though is that as the differences in skill decrease the more randomness influences the outcome.> I¡¦ll be on travel today so I won¡¦t be able to look at the video. So I guess that my "threat" is that I will give you my opinion on that tomorrow. :-) Apr-30-17    AylerKupp: <<Sally Simpson> … use the knowledge to clean out the Site Bookie.> Thanks for the suggestion of looking for Indian signs, of which the most famous one is probably Carlsen’s Indian Sign against Nakamura at classical time controls. I had previously thought about it but discarded it. But once I get my database up and running it should not be too hard to create a matrix of player-vs-player results. Then, using Bayes’ theorem, modify the classical probability distributions accordingly. And I think I uncovered a method to effectively use TPRs even after the very first game played in a tournament by using an attenuation function. So far the shape of the attenuation function is remarkably consistent for all the tournaments for which I had calculated it. But I am not sure whether using these modified TPRs are any better than using live ratings with a suitable gain factor in predicting results. My ambition is actually greater than cleaning out the Chessbookie site. I was going to look for sites where <real> money would be exchanged. I haven’t gotten to do that yet since I’m not even sure that my approach will result in overall positive results. Apr-30-17    morfishine: Congrats to Mamedyarov! Nice finish by So to come in tied for second after his slow start ***** Apr-30-17    tamar: <Gypsy> 42...Qg2 was objectively a poor move, and puts Kramnik at the brink of defeat. But it seemed to throw Eljanov into confusion and he did not call its bluff with 43 a6 click for larger view The f6 knight is pinned and 43...Rh3 or 44...Rh2 is easily handled by 44 Rf1 Instead he made a more non-committal move 43 Ne5 and after 43...c4 a real error 44 Qd4 allowing the c pawn to run So it is fair to say he lost the thread, but I wonder if his problem was too much respect for Kramnik, believing his Kside attack more dangerous than it was. Apr-30-17    Pedro Fernandez: I don't know <AylerKupp> how we could understand certain outcomes which are succeeded in the last months. Ivanchuck, Aronian, Topalov, Kramnik, Naiditch, etc. Game theory, inference, are sons of probabilities and statistics, with their standard deviation, variance, kurtosis, etc., which are considered as a mathematical theory. However I think it is a bit temerarious apply all of these concepts to the possible outcomes that one sees in chess. Maybe because of some of the cognitive part of our brains still has not a measure. Apr-30-17    morfishine: What is it with all this gibberish about probabilities and mathematical theory as it applies to the possible outcome of a chess game or tournament? To what end? Go grow grapes and produce wine and stop all this nonsensical talk ***** Apr-30-17    BOSTER: No doubt that statistics in chess, like in any other field, means a lot. And all attempts dealing with analysis and interpretation them are useful, even sometimes the result can't be applied to real world. Apr-30-17    Marmot PFL: Maybe I misunderstood. if you trying to pick the total number of wins or draws than that is more likely to be accurate than the winner of just one game, like picking the % of heads on 100 coin tosses is easier than calling one toss. Apr-30-17    SirRuthless: Congrats to Mamedyarov. Hopefully he qualifies to candidates and is himself on the attack while he defends well enough to be competitive. Apr-30-17    BOSTER: <SirRuthless>: <he qualifies to candidates>. How? Apr-30-17    SirRuthless: He's got everything one needs to win the 2017 FIDE world cup. I posit that Mamedyarov is better positioned to qualify this cycle than Caruana because Mamed is a consistently great blitz player while Caru is not. Apr-30-17    Boomie: <SirRuthless: He's got everything one needs to win the 2017 FIDE world cup. I posit that Mamedyarov is better positioned to qualify this cycle than Caruana because Mamed is a consistently great blitz player while Caru is not.> The live ratings do not show Shak dominance in blitz. He does have a rather significant edge in rapids, however. ---------------Reg----Rapid---Blitz Caruana ---- 2805.4 2752.0 2800.0 Mamedyarov 2781.0 2825.0 2772.0 May-01-17    Sally Simpson: Hi AylerKupp, Never mind these 'Nay Sayers'. if you are having harmless fun then do continue. Your cleaned up D.B. can be used for other things. Are the two Bishops really that good. Look for endgames with 2 Bishops v 2 Knights. Get results for both colours. I did this one a standard DB and the results were surprising. Then do one Bishop v Knight endings (should be a massive Bishop plus) and Rook v 2 minor pieces. Which pawn gets promoted the most. I know most games will be resigned before the pawn is promoted so that's a tough search set-up but there are loads of games where a promotion took place. Which pawn is the 'Prince of Pawns.' (you might find one player - for example Carlsen, has promoted his c-pawn more than any other player - therefore get Carlsen's c-pawn and he cannot win!) Other things like: The Doubled pawns on c2 and c3. Results before move 40 and results after move 40. Is it a bonus in the middle game - a weakness in an ending. Who has sacced a Bishop on f7 the most. You can have hours of fun. May-01-17    Pedro Fernandez: Statistics and probability are strictly a mathematical theory. No doubt about that. The fact I'm an ignorant on that matter has not any importance at all. Nonetheless, e.g. Aronian winning Baden-Baden is certainly for me a remarkable, notable fact. May-01-17    Jambow: <Go grow grapes and produce wine and stop all this nonsensical talk> I have done the mathimatical calculations applied the formulas and the derived that the statistical probabilities are that they have already been drinking the fruit of the vine for some time. <No doubt that statistics in chess, like in any other field, means a lot. And all attempts dealing with analysis and interpretation them are useful, even sometimes the result can't be applied to real world.> If it isn't applical then by definition it means nothing? This imaginary realm in which so many live is not good. Thanks Bolster I could have just cut and pasted your response it was right on point. Last https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMd... Bugsy joined cg.com? Great job Mamedyarov !!! May-01-17    chessalem: nice job wesley...an excellent show of magnanimity for losing to a countryman of the one whom this tournament is held in honor of.... time to begin a new unbeaten streak...it's now 8 and counting.... May-01-17    Sokrates: Much of predictions by statistics reminds of a Danish cartoonist and humorist, Storm P, the most famous in my country, who once drew a man lying on his back with a smoked herring on his belly. Outside the windows there's terrible weather with lots of lightnings and blitzes. Another man says, "Why are you lying there like that?" Replies the man, "Because there has been no evidence of man ever hit by lightning while lying on the floor with a smoked herring on his belly!" May-01-17    Marmot PFL: Tomorrow's weather is usually predictable,the weather in five days can often be estimated and weather in thirty days in anybody's guess. May-01-17    Petrosianic: When's the last time anyone saw Kramnik win a Most Wins Tiebreaker? May-01-17    Petrosianic: <Sokrates>: <Another man says, "Why are you lying there like that?" Replies the man, "Because there has been no evidence of man ever hit by lightning while lying on the floor with a smoked herring on his belly!"> That reminds me of the joke: An Aggie heard that 60% of all accidents happened in the home, so he moved. May-01-17    OhioChessFan: Anyone else notice a glaring absence of posts from a certain person? May-01-17    Pedro Fernandez: << Marmot PFL>: Maybe I misunderstood. if you trying to pick the total number of wins or draws than that is more likely to be accurate than the winner of just one game, like picking the % of heads on 100 coin tosses is easier than calling one toss.> Of course <Marmot>. There is not misunderstanding my great friend. Greetings. 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