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Jun-09-06
 | | keypusher: <Sonas's system also favors tournament play over match play.> How?
<Just read off some of the names Petrosian had to climb over to get to the top of the 1961 USSR championship: Spassky, Bronstein, Geller, Korchnoi, Stein, Boleslavesky, Taimanov, Averbakh, Gufeld....A much, much, stronger field than Ostend 1905.> Why? |
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Jun-09-06 | | RookFile: Well, it's a lovely quote keypusher. Except for the fact that Atkins was only awarded with the IM title after he died. That's a pretty good objective opinion of his strength. It's not really interesting what 'would' have happenned 'if' a player had continued to play.... The best statement that can be made about the list from 1905 is, I don't so much have a problem with the people on the list, as in how highly they are rated. Sure, you can quibble over things, such as whether Lasker should be rated higher than Janovsky, Blackburne, or Tarrasch, who went down decisively in match defeats to the German 'World Master'.
If you go back to 1858, the #1 rated player in the world was Paul Morphy, at 2651, who simply won everything he ever played by decisive results. Apparently, in the span of less than 50 years, we are supposed to believe that Maroczy should be regarded 2786, because he won a few tournaments, and Lasker didn't get around to crushing him. The number 10 player in the world in 1858 was Henry Bird, who, frankly, would have been a good opponent for Atkins. To show the effects of rating inflation in Sonas's calculation, follow the career of Henry Edward Bird. The guy is #10 in the world at 2488 in 1858. By 1901, some 43 years later, Bird still shows up in the top 100. Is his rating reduced to 2200 or something, as common sense would suggest? No, of course not: Sonas rates the 1901 version of Bird at 2479, which is to suggest that this version of Bird was capable of defeating the 1858 version in a match. That's pretty good, considering that Bird would be dead soon. The upwards trend in ratings in less than a 50 year period appears to be completely unmotivated, and harmful to players like Petrosian, who was the best player in the world for most of the 1960's. |
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Jun-09-06 | | RookFile: To show the effects Sonas's system has on match play, consider his own words, on his web site, in explaining
how he rates things.
Suppose that a player like Michael Adams played Anatoly Karpov, in his prime, in a 6 game match, and drew the match with him, 3 to 3. Great result, isn't it?
Yet, under the Sonas system, Adams would probably lose rating points, or, at best, break even. Adams as 2749 and Karpov at 2833 approximate the following quote from Sonas: "For example, although a 50% score in a 6-game match against a 2800-rated player would traditionally be called a 2800 performance rating, my formulas (which are sensitive to the number of games played) would conservatively call that a 2728 performance rating, because of the small number of games. If that single six-game match were the only results we had available for you, we would assign you an overall rating of 2728, not 2800. " Every other rating system around has Adams gaining as a result of drawing a match with Anatoly Karpov, but Sonas would probably have Adams at best breaking even from such a result. |
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Jun-09-06 | | RookFile: A more objective, better approach to evaluating results is: every game of chess, played under official tournament conditions, is just as important as every other game played as such. Match, tournament: it makes no difference. Players like Petrosian, winner of world championship matches, definitely benefit from such an arrangement. |
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Jun-09-06
 | | keypusher: <The best statement that can be made about the list from 1905 is, I don't so much have a problem with the people on the list, as in how highly they are rated.> OK, that's all I need. Now I can make it simple. At Ostend Geza Maroczy scored 75% (19.5/26) against a field that you now concede included over half of the top 10 players in the world. By contrast at Curacao 1962, Tigran Petrosian scored 65% (16.5/27) against a field that included over half the top 10 players in the world. Both great performances, but Geza Maroczy had a higher rate of success than Petrosian, so he gets a higher performance rating for that event, 2837 to 2829. Now what's the problem? <Except for the fact that Atkins was only awarded with the IM title after he died. That's a pretty good objective opinion of his strength.> Really? Why do you think so? Maybe you could explain the criteria FIDE used to me. From Atkins' bio on this site:
<In the British Championship which he contested 11 times he won the event 9 times viz 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1910, 1911, 1924 and 1925. In his first attempt in 1904 he finished 1st= with William Ewart Napier but lost the play-off and in his last appearance in 1937 he was 3rd= at 65 years of age!> Well, everyone knows the English can't play chess.
<His international career was made up by just six events. In the Hastings 1895 minor tournament he finished 2nd= behind Geza Maroczy.> We know that Maroczy was a fish, so we can discount that. <In 1899 he won the Amsterdam tourney by a whopping 4 points.> In fact, he won all his games, but it was a fairly weak tournament. <In the Hanover 1902 tournament he was 3rd behind David Janowski and Harry Nelson Pillsbury and ahead of Frank James Marshall and Mikhail Chigorin amongst others.> I'm sure there's a very good explanation for this!
<The upwards trend in ratings in less than a 50 year period appears to be completely unmotivated, and harmful to players like Petrosian, who was the best player in the world for most of the 1960's.> But...er...if chessmetrics ratings were inflated over time, then Petrosian would be OVERRATED compared to the leading players of 1905. But you seem to think he is UNDERRATED. And Fischer would be UNDERRATED compared to the leading players right now. Instead, because one of Sonas' main goals is to eliminate rating inflation, Fischer still has the highest rating ever, instead of being behind (among others) Topalov, as he is in the Elo ratings. Here is Sonas' explanation for how he calculated his ratings. It's very user friendly. Read and then maybe you can finally make me understand how Sonas' system is prejudiced against Fischer, matches, Tigran Petrosian, Tarrasch, truth, justice and the American Way. Perhaps you'll even uncover the secret of Sonas' strange partiality for Geza Maroczy. http://db.chessmetrics.com/CM2/Form... |
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Jun-09-06
 | | keypusher: <Yet, under the Sonas system, Adams would probably lose rating points, or, at best, break even. Adams as 2749 and Karpov at 2833 approximate the following quote from Sonas: "For example, although a 50% score in a 6-game match against a 2800-rated player would traditionally be called a 2800 performance rating, my formulas (which are sensitive to the number of games played) would conservatively call that a 2728 performance rating, because of the small number of games. If that single six-game match were the only results we had available for you, we would assign you an overall rating of 2728, not 2800. "> That's because of the number of games played, not the setting in which they are played. If Adams scored 50% in a 6 game tournament against 2800-rated opposition (instead of in a 6-game match against a single 2800-rated opponent) the results are the same. You see that, surely?? <A more objective, better approach to evaluating results is: every game of chess, played under official tournament conditions, is just as important as every other game played as such. Match, tournament: it makes no difference.> That...is...what...he...does. |
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Jun-09-06
 | | IMlday: Frankly, I think Petrosian would beat Adams in any match by 1-0 with n draws.
That was enough for the minimalist tiger who spotted all threats while they were still on the horizon. |
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Jun-09-06 | | tud: There are players with constant high minimums. Petrosian had very low lowest levels. The compensations were his amazingly high maximums - that makes him so special. Not that I am a big fan but he really was several years for real, the best player in the world. That was his personality. Many sportmen are the same. |
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Jun-09-06
 | | IMlday: Games where Petrosian was paired down with Black and played to win are exceptionally instructive in my opinion.
Rare indeed, but valuable lessons. |
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Jun-11-06 | | sixfeetunder: <IMlday>Could you give some examples? Im really interested in Petrosian's games and I like his style. |
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Jun-11-06 | | RookFile: <keypusher:OK, that's all I need. Now I can make it simple. At Ostend Geza Maroczy scored 75% (19.5/26) against a field that you now concede included over half of the top 10 players in the world. By contrast at Curacao 1962, Tigran Petrosian scored 65% (16.5/27) against a field that included over half the top 10 players in the world. Both great performances, but Geza Maroczy had a higher rate of success than Petrosian, so he gets a higher performance rating for that event, 2837 to 2829. Now what's the problem?> Half of 10 is 5. That means there were quite a few rabbits out there for Maroczy to bash, in this 14 player tournament. At Curacao 1962, there were no rabbits, every player there was capable of playing a competitive match against the world champion. Not so at Ostend - taking a middle of the road competitor like Burn, you know that he would have slaughtered in a match against the champ. The top players at Ostend, like Pillsbury, and Schlechter, should bring as much respect as players like Korchnoi or Geller, but at Curacao, there were MORE top players. |
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Jun-11-06 | | RookFile: <keypusher: In the British Championship which he contested 11 times he won the event 9 times viz 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1910, 1911, 1924 and 1925. In his first attempt in 1904 he finished 1st= with William Ewart Napier but lost the play-off and in his last appearance in 1937 he was 3rd= at 65 years of age! Well, everyone knows the English can't play chess. > It's matter of public record that England didn't have a player considered worthy of the GM title until Tony Miles in 1976. It's nice that Atkins got the IM title - but he simply wasn't GM strength. |
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Jun-11-06 | | RookFile: <But...er...if chessmetrics ratings were inflated over time, then Petrosian would be OVERRATED compared to the leading players of 1905. But you seem to think he is UNDERRATED. And Fischer would be UNDERRATED compared to the leading players right now. Instead, because one of Sonas' main goals is to eliminate rating inflation, Fischer still has the highest rating ever, instead of being behind (among others) Topalov, as he is in the Elo ratings. > I think one of the mistakes of the Sonas system is that it thinks the ages before Botvinnik were like those of Botvinnik, where the world champion was 'first among equals'. Sorry, but any list that has Janovski rated more highly than Emanuel Lasker has problems with it. The 'World Master' was HEAD AND SHOULDERS above his competition. Players like Janovsky and Marshall probably don't deserve a rating with 200 points of Lasker. That brings us back to Curacao 1962.
Aside from Petrosian, if you made the claim that Keres, Geller, Fischer, Korchnoi, or Tal could beat the world champion, nobody would laugh at you.
You throw Benko and Filip in there to round out the field, but these players should be more highly regarded than Burn, who was the middle place finisher at Ostend. In every way, Curacao was a stronger tournament than Ostend, and Petrosian's result of going through the interzonal and Candidates without losing a game (the first player ever to do this) was awesome. |
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Jun-11-06 | | RookFile: keypusher: I've already answered your question about the problem with chessmetrics ratings. But, I'll re-iterate the explanation. The system rewards tournament play more than match play. So, for example, Fischer defeats Larsen 6 to 0. How strong a performance does Sonas think this is, 'by today's standards'? Answer: 2750. That is simply a joke.
Any system that claims to be fair should stipulate that every game of chess, played under official tournament conditions, should be treated the same as every other game, whether it be a tournament or a match. |
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Jun-11-06 | | RookFile: <Sonas: Anyway, I wanted to reward the players who played more games, and I also wanted to reward the players who faced tougher opposition. >
This is the origin of his bias. But, playing more games does not in and of itself make you a better player. In fact, those who take time off to study and retool their game, in the long term, end up stronger players, than those who just bring the same game, day in and day out, and never take time to retool. I was watching a tennis tournament a few months ago, and Chris Evert was making this very point. |
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Jun-11-06 | | RookFile: <IMlday: Frankly, I think Petrosian would beat Adams in any match by 1-0 with n draws. That was enough for the minimalist tiger who spotted all threats while they were still on the horizon.> That only applied against the tough guys. Against IM's, which is what Atkins was, Petrosian didn't concede anything, he came to the board not leaving until he got the win. |
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Jun-11-06
 | | IMlday: <sixfeetunder> Here's a file of Petrosian playing to win with Black:
Geller vs Petrosian, 1953
E Joppen vs Petrosian, 1954
Stahlberg vs Petrosian, 1955
J H Donner vs Petrosian, 1955
I A Horowitz vs Petrosian, 1955
Y Sakharov vs Petrosian, 1956
Filip vs Petrosian, 1956
Chistiakov vs Petrosian, 1956
E Terpugov vs Petrosian, 1957
Tolush vs Petrosian, 1957
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Jun-11-06
 | | IMlday: Pt. 2
Filip vs Petrosian, 1962
B Wexler vs Petrosian, 1964
Platonov vs Petrosian, 1964
J Kupper vs Petrosian, 1964
Udovcic vs Petrosian, 1965
Larsen vs Petrosian, 1966
Simagin vs Petrosian, 1966
Najdorf vs Petrosian, 1966
Minev vs Petrosian, 1966
E Paoli vs Petrosian, 1967
J Kupper vs Petrosian, 1967
R Byrne vs Petrosian, 1968
Bobotsov vs Petrosian, 1968
J B Bednarski vs Petrosian, 1968
Furman vs Petrosian, 1969
V Kovacevic vs Petrosian, 1970
Z Basagic vs Petrosian, 1972
R Bogdanovic vs Petrosian, 1972
K Langeweg vs Petrosian, 1973 |
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Jun-11-06 | | RookFile: I've also thought this was a nice game:
Bisguier vs Petrosian, 1954 |
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Jun-12-06 | | sixfeetunder: <IMlday> Thank you very much! |
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Jun-14-06 | | DUS: <#1, #2, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9 in the world according to who?> -- According to <keypusher>. |
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Jun-14-06 | | whatthefat: <Rookfile> - reading through this argument, you seem to be genuinely uninformed regarding ratings systems, and the mathematical justifications behind them. Your point regarding chessmetrics:
<This is the origin of his bias. But, playing more games does not in and of itself make you a better player.>
is mostly irrelevant. The effect only becomes significant when a player takes a serious break from the game, such as Lasker. If a player is not active, there is simply no way to assess whether they deserve a place in the top 10, so it is sensible to exclude them. By your argument, we should perhaps leave Fischer's rating unchanged between 1972 and 1992. |
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Jun-14-06
 | | keypusher: <whatthefat> Don't waste your time, that's why I finally put <rookfile> on ignore. The less he knows, the more stubborn he is. |
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Jun-15-06 | | DUS: <It's matter of public record that England didn't have a player considered worthy of the GM title until Tony Miles in 1976.> <RookFile> -- Of course. I think it is unfortunate that you were forced to mention this well known fact. It is interesting that some people didn't know it. |
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Jun-15-06 | | ughaibu: Blackburne, Yeats, Penrose. . . |
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